Uncertainty and Risk Analysis in Hydrological Models for Land- use Management

The characterisation of uncertainty and risk analysis are two research domains that have many common elements. Specifically, they are both based on an acknowledgment that decisions are never made using perfect knowledge and therefore always have some degree of associated risk or uncertainty. Research in uncertainty addresses this by seeking to understand the causes of uncertainty, and to quantify the magnitude of uncertainty associated with limited information. Risk analysis is more focussed upon making decisions in the face of uncertainty. In this paper, areas of overlap between uncertainty research and risk analysis are presented and discussed in the context of hydrological models. A number of fundamental terms in uncertainty and risk are defined, and ways of presenting uncertainty related to risk analysis are described.